The country has been divided into three regions based on population and number of cases. Region 1 includes La Campa and has a full reopening date of July 15th. Region 2 includes Gracias, the largest city closest to us where we do a majority of our shopping and where La Casa De Rubén is located, has a full reopening date of July 30th. Region 3, which includes all of the major cities and airports, has a full reopening date of August 15th. Each region has a phased plan for the reopening.
Due to an increase in the number of reported cases in Tegucigalpa they have suspended the progression through the phases of reopening. We have heard that Gracias is considering similar measures as there has been a recent increase in cases reported. The rest of the nation is still moving through the phases as defined.
The borders are still closed meaning there is no commercial air travel. Only citizens and residents of other countries are allowed to leave while only citizens and residents of Honduras are allowed to enter. There are very few flights that are being approved by the Honduran government to facilitate this limited amount of travel. The immigration offices have been closed since March so many missionaries, including us, have an even more complicated set of circumstances to deal with in regards to international travel.
Despite having one day per two weeks to go about anywhere in the country to do shopping and banking Jean and I have gone no further than Gracias. This is because of the uncertainty of whether we would be allowed to re-enter Gracias and/or La Campa without having to enter into another 14 day quarantine period due to the number of cases in San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa.
We would like to think that after August 15th we will be allowed to travel freely both within and outside of Honduras but there is just no way of knowing. The uncertainty makes it impossible to make plans so for those of us who are planners, there is the mental and emotional stress of being unable to plan.
But, we promised three perspectives so here they are.
Perspective 1-Tests, Cases & Deaths, as of July 6th
These are totals from the beginning of the crisis:
Tests Performed: 60,724
Total Known Cases: 24,665
Total Deaths: 656
Fatality Rate: 2.65%
Survival Rate: 97.35%
Like social security numbers in the states the Honduran ID number indicates where a person was born. The positive test results are reported based on the ID number, not where the person is actually living. Our department (state) of Lempira is reported as having 44 cases but we know that some of these people don’t and/or haven’t lived in Lempira for a long time. So, as officially reported, 79% of the cases are concentrated in the San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa areas but that percentage is probably a little bit higher.
Also, while it can’t be proven conclusively, it is logical to conclude that out of a population of almost 10 million people the nearly 61,000 tests done to date don’t come close to capturing the actual number of positive cases there have been in Honduras. That being said, the fatality rate is likely lower, so conversely, the survival rate is higher than an already high 97.35%.
While providing some context none of this analysis minimizes the suffering from the disease and the tragedy of every single human life lost to this disease.
Perspective #2-Hospitalization Statistics Currently as of July 6th
Total Hospitalized: 1,336
Those in Stable Condition: 926 or 66% of hospitalizations
Those in Critical Condition (only needing oxygen): 388 or 29% of hospitalizations
Those in ICU (needing oxygen and a ventilator): 52 or 3.9% of hospitalizations
The hospitalization statistics by themselves lack context. The hospital system in Honduras is very under resourced and operates at the very margin under normal circumstances. Oxygen tanks and many other supplies are in very short supply across the country.
The hospital in Gracias only has 14 beds it can dedicate to COVID-19 patients. While we know that not all 44 positive cases officially reported have actually been located in or near Gracias it is obvious that there is really no extra capacity. Not only that but there is no capacity here to handle COVID-19 patients in critical condition or requiring an ICU bed. Those patients are being referred to other hospitals but the other hospitals are full.
The number of positive cases is increasing but the fatality rate is decreasing-that is very good news. While the hospitalization numbers have been increasing they are not really that high but think about this-it has only taken 1,336 additional hospitalizations nationwide to push the already fragile hospital system over the edge.
There are reports of patients lying in beds for long periods of time, without receiving much care, in the hallways of the major public hospitals. There are increasing reports of patients with varying medical needs, not just COVID19, being turned away because there just isn’t the capacity to treat them. Due to the lack of PPE more doctors are becoming COVID-19 patients themselves.
30 doctors working in the hospital in Gracias were tested recently and 7 of those tests came back positive. That alone represents 50% of the COVID-19 beds available. The hospital committee is searching for an alternate location for the doctors who need treatment to keep the few beds available to the public.
Perspective #3-The Economic Impact
For 113 days many people have been unable to work due to the lockdown. Unlike in the U.S. where there was a fairly reliable safety net in the form of checks mailed and increased unemployment payouts, other than distribution of some food bags there have been no other benefits available to those who have lost their jobs due to this crisis. Factories have been closed, all public transportation has been halted and with no tourists or mission teams being allowed into the country the hospitality industry has been decimated. The big question is this-when and how much of this is going to come back once the restrictions are lifted?
Right now more people are hungry. Right now more families are choosing between buying medicine or food. For people much more acquainted with suffering many are experiencing suffering on a new level. In the large cities there are more and more families on the streets begging for as little as 1 Lempira, or about $.04. It is not because they don’t want to work. It is because they can’t.
While we don’t see that happening in the mountains we can tell you that we have delivered food bags to houses where there was nothing to eat and hadn’t been for quite some time. We thank all of you who have generously given so that we can bring relief to these families.
There are so many layers of fallout due to lockdown imposed. The physical therapy center in Gracias where Rubén and Rosalina used to go for therapy is still not open. We have been blessed to be able to provide ongoing therapy at La Casa De Rubén. There are many others who have not been able to receive this blessing. At this time it is unclear how and when CRILE will be able to open again.
As sad as the sicknesses are, and as tragic as each death is, it is our opinion that the economic, social, mental, emotional and spiritual impacts due to the lockdown will be much longer lasting and deeper than the virus itself.
What should have been done? Should things have been done differently? What should be done now?
Jean and I don’t know. It is easy to have opinions when you are not the one accountable for the decisions that have to be made. Since March, for those having to make decisions, the choices have mostly been between the least worst of the bad options.
So, since we don’t know, we place our faith and trust in God, the One who does know. Praying is a great way to put our faith and trust in action so if you are one who prays…
Please pray for the cases, sicknesses and death to come to a quick end.
Please pray for the people of Honduras who are suffering in many ways more now than they have in a long time.
Please pray for the medical professionals having to figure out how to care for a lot of people with few resources available to them.
Please pray for the leaders of Honduras to make wise decisions, to choose the best options possible.
Please pray for the pastors and missionaries serving in Honduras, that we be unwavering in our faith no matter what happens.
Please pray for Honduras in any other way that you are led.
Thank you all so much for being a part of this journey with FHD Missions Honduras.